Reform in contention in potential nightmare by-election for Labour

24 February 2025, 14:37 | Updated: 24 February 2025, 15:03

The jailing of Mike Amesbury for 10 weeks for assault means Sir Keir Starmer potentially faces his first by-election test since becoming prime minister.

Officially, the 55-year-old former Labour MP for Runcorn and Helsby now faces a recall petition, but realistically he's under enormous pressure to resign without delay.

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Amesbury was immediately disowned by the Labour Party, which condemned his actions in the assault as "completely unacceptable" and said it was time for a new MP.

"Local residents in the Runcorn and Helsby constituency deserved better, and we look forward to them getting the representation they deserved in the future with a new MP," said a party spokesperson.

Amesbury held the Cheshire seat with a seemingly healthy 14,696 majority at the July 2024 general election. But in a potential nightmare for Sir Keir, it was Reform UK - not the Conservatives - in second place.

The current state of opinion polls, with Nigel Farage's party edging ahead of Labour, suggests Reform will be in contention in a by-election and could pull off a sensational victory.

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And so predictably it was Reform's chairman Zia Yusuf who led calls from opponents for Amesbury to resign, followed by a handful of Tory backbenchers - but not by Kemi Badenoch yet.

"The great people of Runcorn deserve far better than waiting six weeks for a recall petition to take place," said Mr Yusuf. "We call on Mike Amesbury to do the honourable thing and resign immediately."

The risk of humiliation by Mr Farage may deter Labour big hitter Jonathan Ashworth - one of five Labour MPs defeated in July last year - from gambling on a quick return to Westminster in this seat.

The Conservatives appear to be in disarray over a potential by-election. Sky News can reveal that party HQ last week invited applications to be Tory candidate, with a deadline fast approaching.

"We are writing to invite applications for Runcorn and Helsby," said a letter from the party's candidates team. "We are particularly keen to see applications from people with links to the constituency.

"If you are eligible to stand and interested in applying, please apply through the Microsoft Form here and apply by no later than Tuesday 25th February at 12pm."

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When could a by-election happen?

A recall petition happens if an MP is jailed or receives a suspended sentence of a year or less. It lasts six weeks and if 10% of electors sign it, there's a by-election - though the recalled MP can stand.

The last MP to be jailed was Tory Imran Ahmad Khan, former MP for Wakefield, who was sentenced to 18 months after being found guilty of sexually assaulting a 15-yar-old boy. Labour won that by-election.

Although Sir Keir and the Labour high command have acknowledged since Amesbury pleaded guilty that a by-election in Runcorn and Helsby was almost inevitable, the party faces a dilemma over the timing of a poll.

Labour's statement looking forward to a new MP suggests the party favours a speedy by-election, without the delay of a recall petition, rather than waiting until the local elections on 1 May or even later.

But there are dangers in a quick poll, as Sir Keir will recall. He was advised to rush the Hartlepool by-election in 2021, with disastrous results, and he has admitted he considered quitting after that humiliating defeat.

The numbers in Runcorn and Helsby last July were Labour on 22,358 votes (52.94%), Reform 7,662, (18.14%), Conservatives 6,756, (16%), Greens 2,715, (6.43%) and Liberal Democrats 2,149, (5.09%).

Runcorn is on the southern bank of the River Mersey and has expanded as a new town since 1964, and dominates the constituency with a population of 61,000. There are two smaller towns, Frodsham and Helsby.

Amesbury became MP for the processor seat of Weaver Vale in 2017. He was a shadow minister for work and pensions under Jeremy Corbyn, and for housing, communities and local government under Sir Keir until 2022.